“We have either bent the curve or are on the verge of it and, if this trend continues for a month, we will be able to handle Covid-19 very easily,” said Joshi. The doubling time has vastly improved from only 13 days on May 13.
“Once the doubling rate reaches 30 days, the requirement of additional beds drastically decreases,” said BMC commissioner I S Chahal. If the doubling rate reaches 32 days, the BMC would be able to treat “four times more patient on the existing bed strength”.
At present, the BMC has 11,500 beds for the Covid-19 treatment, and, according to the new discharge policy, patients can be discharged after seven days if they are not critical.
Chahal said: “There is no study to suggest how the virus will react during the monsoon. However, we are taking all precaution and are prepared for any situation.” The BMC will increase Covid beds to 20,000 within a month, he added. These beds don’t include the quarantine facility for high-risk contacts and asymptomatic patients.
The BMC update till Tuesday showed 11 of the city’s 24 wards have a case doubling time of 31 to 60 days. The time is between 13 and 28 days in the 13 others, mainly in the suburbs.
Wards that were considered the worst until a month ago have managed to drastically increase their doubling time (see box). The G-North ward, which was in the news due to drastic increase in the number of cases in Dharavi, has a time of 46 days with 3,972 cases. On Wednesday, Dharavi recorded 17 new cases, including one death.
Epidemiologist Dr Giridhara R Babu from the Indian Institute of Public Health in Bengaluru said: “Considering the decrease in the rate at which cases are spreading in Mumbai at this moment, we could, with a little caution, say the worst could be over for the city.” However, he said there is no way of knowing how the unlocking could affect the Covid graph. “Covid-19 spreads in clusters, and given the high density of population in some of Mumbai’s slum pockets, it could spread,” he added.
Dr Joshi, dean of the Indian College of Physicians, said with the recovery rate close to the detection rate and doubling time on the verge of crossing 30 days, it seems Mumbai is on the threshold of pulling out of the pandemic. “If we aggressively follow social distancing, wash hands frequently and wear face masks, we may be able to avoid a second corona peak.”
